Shorthanded Pots. More On Timing

In my previous article I discussed how to think in terms of pot odds when approaching short handed situations. If you did not read it, you probably should before you proceed with this one.

My conclusion was that in shorthanded situations it is vital to your success that you protect your marginal holdings by betting, and that you win your share of pots without reaching a showdown.

A key element in the latter is timing. Now what is timing? Timing is the art of knowing when to and when not to. Or as expressed by a Japanese samurai in the 17th century:

In strategy there is various timing considerations. This is the main thing in strategy. It is especially important to know the background timing, otherwise your strategy will become uncertain. You win in battles with the timing in the void born of the timing of cunning by knowing the enemies' timing and thus using a timing which the enemy does not expect. (Miyamoto Musashi - The Book of Five Rings)

Though Musashi's words can seem somewhat abstract, I have still not come across a better description of what timing in poker really is.

The first principle of timing has to be that you make a move at a time where your opponent does not expect such a move. This will force him to stop and think. Only when you force your opponent to stop and think is there a chance that he will end up making the mistake of laying down the best hand. You will not force your opponent to stop and think unless you bet or raise him at a moment where he does not expect it from you.

A second principle is to know the "background" timing. Background timing encompasses a lot of different things, i.e. who is stuck, who has taken a couple of beats lately and expects his bad luck to continue, who has been caught bluffing recently, who is weak and tired, who is alert enough to see what you're doing and adjust his strategy accordingly etc. The fact is that most players will play differently at different times during a session. Those differences are often the result of luck and/or lack thereof, which tends to affect most people emotionally without them even realizing it. You must notice these things, as they define what you can get away with against whom and at what times.

A third principle of timing concerns balance. I have discussed this principle in more detail in my article on the art of bluffing, but the fact is that in order for a bluff attempt to be successful you most make the same betting sequence that you usually make when you actually hold the hand you're trying to represent. One less obvious implication of this principle is that the more you mix up your play, the more that the applicable timings for various moves will appear trustworthy. This means that for shorthanded situations it is often worth giving up some value on your strong hands, in order to appear credible when you play your weak hands the same way.

These three principles work together in tandem. But a first priority should always be to force your opponent to stop and think frequently, and this can only be achieved through timely aggression. Most players consider themselves tight aggressive. In my opinion these players lack guts and imagination (and probably experience too). All great players are capable of playing several different strategies, and have a great sense of timing in when to change strategy. And what does it mean to be aggressive anyway? The ultimate aggression factor would involve always betting and raising without looking at your cards. This is just as predictable as check-calling all the time. When you are playing that predictably it will become easy for your opponent to get a lock on you and make very few mistakes against you. For aggression to work, you have to apply it at the right moments.

Below I have given some hand examples. These are meant as inspiration only, as the right move at the right time is always very dependent on the details, especially how you have played previous hands, how this has been perceived by your opponent and all the factors included in the "background timing". For that reason, in my world the only difference between a great bluff and a horrible one usually lies in the reasons for making that specific move at that specific time against that specific player - NOT in the outcome of it.

Pokerstars $30-60 - Total number of players : 10

Here is a good example of how a marginal holding can be played. By seizing the initiative right away, my opponent will be hard pressed to call down with less then a king in his hand. And even with a king with less then an ace kicker he will not like this spot, as I am known to play my sets the exact same way. It doesn't cost me much more to lead the betting compared to check-calling, but this way I get an extra chance of betting a better hand out of the pot. On top of this I still have two outs to hit my set, and I might have the current best hand (though the probability of this is below 20% given the pre-flop action).

Most of the time I would probably fold on the flop, knowing that an ace or a king hits the AK type of hands, and when he has a pair I am usually beaten here. But as a variation play it is strong, as my opponent knows that I know this, which forces him to give my check-raise extra credit. As it turned out, the check-raise got him confused and the turn bet got him convinced. Timing often involves more then one betting round! Finally this play will only work if you would check-raise AK or a set frequently in this spot. If you always wait till the turn before check-raising when you flop a set, you cannot represent a set by check-raising on the flop!

Party Poker $30-60 - Total number of players : 10

Another example of basically the same move. When an ace or a king hits the board it helps the pre-flop aggressor most of the time. When it doesn't help him it usually destroys him, provided someone decides to forcefully represent it. In this case all three players raised pre-flop. This means that we were all aware that good cards are out there. If I were my opponent I would fear the following holdings: when facing the check-raise on the turn: A set of 9s, a set of kings and AK Now before you decide what to do on the turn, you must ask yourself how you would normally bet one of these holdings. You would probably not bet straight out on the turn, but go for the check-raise instead. Therefore a check-raise will represent a credible threat whereas a bet will not. Does that mean that you should check-raise when you bluff and bet straight out when you have the goods? No it does not. First off, you need to play your good hands in a way that lend cover to the bad ones. And secondly you would not gain anything by betting out with a set here, as all you would achieve was to make your opponent confused and call you down.

The player who capped the betting obviously had a pocket pair lower than kings, whereas the third guy waited till the river before executing the conclusion he reached on the turn - that he was beaten. Because most players tend to hesitate in the execution of decisions involving unpleasant outcomes, it is often necessary to be decisive and carry through without hesitation when you have decided upon making a representation. There is no turning back (except for the times where the speed with which your opponent calls, or his physical exposure makes it obvious that he is going to call you down). Also it is worth noting that the previous betting rounds all add up to a story. Good timing often involves the current nuts changing with the fall of a card, and it incorporates the holdings you're "supposed" to have given your raises on previous betting rounds. And again you only need to success some 10% of the time to show a profit on a move like this.

Party Poker $50-100 - Total number of players : 10

This was a wicked pot, and it illustrates a couple of valuable lessons. The first is that each betting round presents a complete new set of options, provided that you don't get stuck in the mindset of a previous betting round. It also illustrates that sometimes when a play goes awry this might actually create a beneficial situation further down the road.

But first off open raising with A3s from mid position is loose indeed. But as I had just shown a couple of good hands, I figured I'd push my rush a little, as this had caused my opponents to be a little afraid of me. The "background timing" was therefore right to open it up a little. Getting three callers is both good and bad news. It means that the pot is no more shorthanded, which will make it difficult to steal it, but will give me great pot odds should I flop a draw, which is what I do. With the nut flush draw I don't mind building the pot early as I have sufficient pot odds for my draw. It doesn't really matter if I end up winning or losing this pot. It is a play with a positive expected value over the long run. Furthermore, by betting and raising I might succeed in buying an extra three outs (for a pair of aces to win the pot) by pushing out ace hands that missed. When a pot gets capped on the flop it usually means that someone has a real hand, so I duly check the turn when it doesn't complete my draw. But to my surprise everybody checks behind me! What does that mean? It surely changes the timing for a move on the river from highly improbable to definitively worth trying. The player who capped the flop was likely semi bluffing a spade draw. The player in the big blind might have a weak king or a spade or straight draw. But he has to put me on a strong king given my pre-flop raise and my 3-bet on the flop. So when the river comes a blank I fire a bet, and lo and behold if it doesn't take down a humongous pot! In "The Theory of Poker" David Sklansky argues that the bigger the pot, the harder it usually is to steal it. While this is generally true, great timing will often allow you to take down some sizable pots, simply because the timing makes your opponent 100% certain that he's beat. It is also worth realizing that the bluff on the river only has to succeed 10% of the time to show a profit. But apparently many players subconsciously favor bluffs with a high success rate (and correspondingly low pot size) to long shot bluffs, even though the latter can often be much more profitable.

Party Poker $100-200 - Total number of players : 9

This hand is on the surface of it not all that exciting. The flop is a nice one for me, and even though I have less then top pair I feel I have nothing to worry about as long as my opponent calls instead of re-raising. If he had raised me on the flop or turn however, I would have had a tough decision to make. Check-calling is a weak play!

Pokerstars $30-60 - Total number of players : 10

This is one of the most frequently used plays. As the aggressor pre-flop you are supposed to hold either a pocket pair or an AK type of hand. When the board comes ragged like this, your opponent will usually stay in contest if he can beat AK unimproved. But when an ace lands on the turn, what can he beat? If you have AK, you now have top pair top kicker, and if you had a pocket pair, it is likely higher then any pair your opponent might have flopped. If you fail to realize that your pre-flop raise have "bought" the right to represent the ace whenever it hits the board, you will be costing yourself a lot of money!

Pokerstars $20-40 - Total number of players : 10

This is another standard situation where I believe a lot of players demonstrate a complete lack of timing. As the pre-flop aggressor there is no worse board for you than this. No matter what you hold, this board cannot have helped you in any way, and even when you have pocket aces or even pocket 9s, your holding has become very fragile. Now shouldn't you bet and raise to protect a marginal hand? Yes, but only when the timing is right. If you bet the flop here any draw will stay in, so you will not improve the chances of your hand holding up when it is currently the best hand. Furthermore there are a lot of cards that will effectively kill your hand (any 5, 6, 10 or jack). Therefore, I believe that the best move here is to keep the pot small until you have seen a non-scary turn card. When the turn comes a blank, your check on the flop will almost without failure prompt someone to fire a bet, and now you should raise. If you had bet on the flop your opponents would have had decent odds to call with their draws on the turn too. But now, where you kept the pot small, and they now face a double big bet with only one card to come, they will be making a mistake when calling. Always think in terms of what they think you have and how that correlates to the board.

In this hand I got a free play with pocket deuces. The flop is anything but helpful, but I nonetheless proceed to bet when the small blind has checked, as I now only have one player to beat. Unfortunately the cut off seat calls. On the surface of it the king of clubs on the turn is a very scary card as it makes any draw that he could have stayed in with. However, my flop bet might easily have been a semi bluff bet of a flush draw or an open ended straight draw (as I bet my draws that way quite often), so I proceed to represent a made draw, and he lets me have it. The problem with this play, however, is that a lot of players would call the turn bet here with any queen or high club, and I only have one real out yet, as the deuce of clubs would probably give someone a flush to beat me. So in a sense this qualifies as a desperation bet.

Conclusion: Most of the hands discussed here are hands where it was likely that I was behind, but I usually had a couple of outs going (don't dismiss 2-3 outs - you will have that number of outs a lot in shorthanded pots, and they add up quickly). Some of the examples involves a very aggressive move representing strength on a board that my opponent is expected to have hit given his aggression on previous betting rounds. Yet good opponents know that I know this, and they have to take the treat presented by my raise even more seriously.

Some hands it is hard to tell whether I was ahead or behind in the hand, but through using the board to represent strength I try and protect my hand while maximizing the chance of winning the pot without a showdown.

And finally there is the example with the pocket rockets against a highly coordinated ragged board. As a general principle the blinds are supposed to have hit a ragged board whereas the pre flop aggressor is supposed to have hit aces and kings on the board. This is the general expectation of everybody, and you should take this into account when deciding your timing both when you are defending against a raiser out of the blinds and when you were attacking the blinds.

Though these were the best hands I could come up with, I still feel that this has only scratched the surface. The problem is that what timing will work for you is extremely dependent on how you play in general. If you never bet into a pre-flop raiser when you flop a set but always go for a check-raise, you cannot represent a set by betting, but only through check-raising (which is a bigger investment). Therefore timing is not only about the hand types described here, but also about the no brainers. You must know the general patterns of your game; cause that is the framework against which your timing works. It is always worth asking the following two questions before you decide whether or not to play for the pot:

Is this card one that is likely to have helped you given the action in the hand up to this point? If you actually had the hand you're trying to represent would you usually bet in the way you do now?

Thanks to Leigh Lightfoot-Martin for proof reading this article.

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