Omaha High/Low:

INSURANCE

BY: Russ Fox

"There are worse things in life than death. Have you ever spent an evening with an insurance salesman?" - Woody Allen

Insurance doesn’t sound like a concept for Omaha (or for any poker game, for that matter). There is, though, a type of "insurance" that comes into play in pot-limit and no-limit games (both hold’em and Omaha, although primarily in Omaha). Assume that two players are heads-up in a hand, and no further betting is possible (at least one is all-in). The player that’s behind will have some number of ‘outs’ to win the hand. The person that’s ahead can agree to pay some amount of money (the ‘premium’) to the person who lays insurance (the ‘insurance man’) if his hand holds up. If the opponent draws out, the insurance man must pay him an agreed upon sum in compensation. In this manner the insurance purchaser guarantees himself of getting back out of the pot at least the amount of money that the insurance man has agreed to pay if he loses the hand. Actually, this is not the type of insurance that I want to discuss. (For a longer discussion of insurance, see, for example, Bob Ciaffone’s Omaha Holdem Poker).

Let’s say you’re playing in atypical Omaha high/low game ($6/$12 with a kill to $12/$24). You’re dealt a good (but not great) hand: A29J. You’re in middle position and elect to call. Seven see the flop, a fair flop for your hand: 456. You have the nut low and, barring being counterfeited, should get a portion of the pot. Someone bets (from early position), you, along with five others call. The turn is the 7. Nothing’s changed for your hand. The same person (from early position) bets, and the same five players call. The river is not what you want to see: the 2. When the betting gets around to you (the pot has been bet and raised), you quietly fold.

According to PokerProbe, you were a favorite against six random hands pre-flop (19% versus the average of 14%). On the flop, your winning percentage increased to 37% (from winning the low - only 38 winning high hands of the 5000 sample hands that I ran). The turn increased your chances to 40% (only 4 winning high hands but 4077 winning low hands). PokerProbe still has you as the favorite on the river (23%), but the betting tells you that the nuts are out there. (By the way, this is one of the flaws of PokerProbe and other simulation tools. People do not play random hands. You must, when you are using one of these tools, adjust the results to match the real world.)

What then, is the insurance that I’m talking about? When you’re playing an Omaha high/low hand, you want more than one way to win. A2 by itself almost always makes a playable hand (in low to mid-limit games). The hand that I gave has only one way to win given the flop - low. Because you have the nuts (for low), it’s certainly a hand that I’d be playing until something bad happened (like being counterfeited). I probably wouldn’t bet or raise with the hand, though: it’s a one-way hand that can be both counterfeited and quartered.

Let’s change the hand slightly. Instead of the J, let’s give you the 8. On the flop, this is now a very good hand. You have the nut low and an inside straight draw for high. Depending on the game, you can definitely bet or raise with this hand. When you make your inside straight on the turn, you must bet or raise (the inside straight has also made a flush draw for someone). Instead of six cards to counterfeit your hand (on the original hand), there are now only two cards that can cause you to not get a share of the pot: the A and the 2 (counterfeiting your low and making a possible flush). Even if you’re very unlucky and the Ace or deuce of hearts comes on the river, you may still want to call (you have second nut low and the nut straight), depending on the action at the table, of course. The more players in the game, the more likely that the nuts are out there.

The point I’m making is that the more ways of winning your hand gives you, the more likely you are to get a piece of (or scoop) the pot. Omaha is not a difficult game if you don’t play difficult hands. Throw the trash in the garbage (muck) and you’re halfway home to being a winning player. Play your marginal hands with caution and in good situations, and you’re just about there. Know when to bet and raise with your draws that have not yet hit and you should win.

Speaking of marginal hands, next month I’ll look at some marginal hands along with an infamous trash hand that led to one of the longest threads on rec.gambling.poker.

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