JV'S
KILLER POKER:
ODDS
BY:
John Vorhaus
I'm not a freak for odds. I'm not one of these guys who can tell you that you were 16.5 to 3 against picking up a redraw on the turn and/or completing your hand on the river (and aren't those guys just the most annoying people - especially after they've beaten you out of a pot?)
Truth is, I don't sweat the odds all that much. I prefer to exploit the big advantage offered in the differential between my skill and my opponents' skill rather than the sometimes-quite-slim edge offered by the odds qua odds. That said, there are a few key hold 'em percentages that I've made an effort to know by heart. Generous sot that I am, I've plugged them into a handy little table that you can save for future reference or, better yet, memorize.
(As you study this table, recall that odds are really just fractions stated in reverse. If the odds, for example, are 2-1 against a certain outcome this means that the event is likely to occur one time in three, 3-2 odds give you a two-in-five chance of success, etc.)
JV'S PATENTED HOLD 'EM ODDS TABLE © |
| HOLD 'EM EVENT |
ODDS AGAINST THAT EVENT TAKING PLACE |
| Starting with a pair |
16-1 |
| Starting with a pair of aces |
220-1 |
| Starting with a pair of jacks or higher |
55-1 |
| Starting with a pair or an ace |
4-1 |
| Flopping a set after starting with a pair |
8-1 |
| Starting with suited cards |
3-1 |
| Flopping a four-flush after starting with suited cards |
8-1 |
| Completing that flush |
2-1 |
| Flopping a flush |
118-1 |
| Hitting a runner-runner flush draw |
23-1 |
| Completing a straight after having flopped an open-ended draw |
2-1 |
| Completing a straight after having flopped a gut-shot draw |
10-1 |
| Turning a flopped two-pair into a full house |
5-1 |
| Turning a flopped set into a full house |
2-1 |
| Starting with A-K unsuited 110-1 |
110-1 |
| Starting with A-K suited |
330-1 |
| Flopping an A or K after starting with A-K |
2-1 |
One good thing about knowing the odds is that it undercuts the debilitating sense of entitlement that so many of us take to the table. If you go all day without seeing suited A-K, for example, you start to think that you're owed, somehow - you're overdue, and you're owed good cards. But are you really? If you went ten hours without seeing that hand, your odds wouldn't be terribly outside the norm. So stop whining about never ever getting premium hands. You get your fair share. You just don't recognize what your fair share really is.
Beyond that, the odds give you clear, hard evidence of where your game is woefully out of line. Suppose you're thinking of defending your blind with weak suited cards against an early position raiser (or two!) What are you hoping for? Why, to flop a flush of course. And the odds of that happening are well over 100-1 against! When are you ever going to get pot odds that justify calling on a hundred-to-one shot? Never, that's when. Let true knowledge of the odds purge you of false hope.
Also, don't get too excited about being dealt a pair. In a full game, someone else is likely also to have been dealt a pair more than one-third of the time. And the lower your pair is, the greater the chance that that other pair dominates yours. And get this... if the odds of starting with a pair or an ace are only 4-1 against, at a full table you're likely to have one or more of these pair-or-ace hands opposing you almost all the time. Kinda makes you feel less frisky about your 9-8 suited, don't it?
Well if it doesn't, it should. Because if you're not paying attention to the basic odds of the game you play, then you're not paying attention and you merit all the bad outcomes you receive.
I'm not talking about bad beats. Everyone suffers bad beats. I'm talking about the routine bad outcomes that a nominal knowledge of your real chances would give you the strength and discipline to avoid. You dream of runner-runner flush draws. I know you do. And they get there less than 5 times in every hundred hands. If you know this, and you still dream of catching runner-runner, then you're doing just that: dreaming. You're asleep at the table and you deserve to lose.
Do you feel like you deserve to lose? Of course not! You deserve to win all the time, right? Even when stark mathematical certainty stands against it. So the next time you lament the fact that your A-K doesn't hold up when some jamoke with a naked jack flops a pair, remember that your A-K will only pair up one time in three. Do you still think you deserve to win all the time? Then go back and study that odds table some more, because you just don't get it yet.
But I'm generous. I am so generous. It's my fatal flaw. So I've made a second version of the chart, this one shrunk down to a highly portable credit card (or playing card) size.
"THE POCKET ROCKET" ©
JV'S PATENTED POCKET ODDS CARD |
| EVENT |
ODDS |
| Starting with a pair |
16-1 |
| Starting with a pair of aces |
220-1 |
| Starting with a pair of jacks or higher |
55-1 |
| Starting with a pair or an ace |
4-1 |
| Flopping a set after starting with a pair |
8-1 |
| Starting with suited cards |
3-1 |
| Flopping a four-flush after starting suited |
8-1 |
| Completing that flush |
2-1 |
| Flopping a flush |
118-1 |
| Hitting a runner-runner flush draw |
23-1 |
| Completing a flopped an open-ender |
2-1 |
| Completing a flopped gutshot draw |
10-1 |
| Turning a flopped two-pair into a full house |
5-1 |
| Turning a flopped set into a full house |
2-1 |
| Starting with A-K unsuited 110-1 |
110-1 |
| Starting with A-K suited |
330-1 |
| Flopping an A or K after starting with A-K |
2-1 |
Now all you have to do is print it out, cut it out, and laminate it in plastic. Take it along and study it when you're standing in line at the grocery store or waiting for a stoplight to change. Knowledge is power, friends, and now you can carry knowledge in your wallet.
(John Vorhaus is author
of the KILLER POKER series and News Ambassador
for UltimateBet.com.)
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