Paired Flop

I was playing in a poker tournament last weekend, and the flop came out K-7-7. One of the other players in the hand blurted out in frustration, "How many times are we going to flop a pair?" I made a mental note that he missed completely, and another one that he wasn't comfortable playing with a paired flop. I suppose there's also a column in there about giving away free information, but not this month. This month, I'd like to cover how to play in that all-too-common situation when the board pairs on the flop.

How often does it happen? Well, according to my gorilla math, you should see a paired flop about 18 percent of the time, so it's a situation that you should certainly be familiar with.

How people handle this situation varies widely, and it says a lot about how they approach the game. Some naturally treat it like a dangerous flop, treading carefully, even if they have a good hand, such as two pair. Others see it as an opportunity to take down the pot with nothing, assuming that the pair was unlikely to give someone trips or better, and any serious bet which represented such a hand would be impossible to call.

Like most things in poker, neither perspective is completely correct, although there is truth to both sides. The key is not to always be one player or the other, but to vary your style sufficiently so that when you check, your opponents cannot be sure that you aren't laying in wait, and when you bet strong, your opponents cannot be sure that you aren't betting with the Goods.

Here are some common situations with a paired flop, and how I would recommend playing them:

When you flop a boat or better. When you are fortunate enough to flop a boat or quads, your job is to build a pot. You are not vulnerable to a straight or a flush, and there is a slim chance of your opponent catching a bigger boat or quads. (If they do, you'll probably have to pay them off.) This is one of the rare situations where it is safe to slow-play the hand on the flop, especially if you are playing against opponents who are squeamish about proceeding with these kinds of flops. It may be necessary for your opponents to catch something in order to put any more money into the pot, and you will have to check until they do.

The problem with flopping a boat on a board like this is that there are only five cards in the deck that can match the cards on the flop, and you have two of them. That means that there are only three other cards out there floating around that will give someone a reason to bet. Once the turn and river are dealt, more possibilities exist, and you may find yourself up against a player who really likes his two pair. But unless an opponent has been cold-decked by the flop, or is running a bluff, it is unlikely that you will get any action early with a boat or quads.

When you flop trips. With this hand, you are probably in the lead, but you are vulnerable, and may even be behind another player with the same trips with a better kicker. In this situation, I like to bet out, and make every effort to keep the pot small. A bet of half the pot works well here, big enough to discourage bluffing and charge drawing hands, but not so much that I am building a huge pot for an opponent who already has me beaten. If I am raised, I might just dump the hand here and now, if I'm raised by a solid player. But usually, he who leads the betting controls the bet size, and I'll just be called by those still interested in remaining in the hand.

If there is a bet in front of me, I will only raise it if it is too small, and this is actually quite common. Some players, taking the lead from Phil Hellmuth and Chris Ferguson, will put in a small, quarter-pot bet on scary flops in order to take down the pot cheaply. I like to raise those bets, taking the lead in the hand and making sure that I can find out early on if someone has a real hand or is hanging around merely because the price is low.

If there is a big bet, then I have to make a decision. How tricky a player is it? How likely is it that a player with a better hand than mine would bet that way? I'll usually make the call, but not always. And I'll fully expect to have to make another decision on the turn.

When you flop two pair. There are three ways to make two pair on such a board. You can pair the odd card. (In the above example, where the board was K-7-7, and you have K-Q.) You can have an overpair to the board (A-A), or you can have an underpair to the board (5-5).

In a heads-up situation, if you have an overpair or have paired the odd card with a good kicker, you are still likely to have the best hand, but tread carefully. You really need to bet for information here, while the pot is still relatively small.

If you are heads-up with an underpair, or two pair with a bad kicker, you are ahead of hands with two overs, or an underpair smaller than yours, and that's about it. You can bet here, but if you get called, you're pretty much done with the hand. The main thing is, don't feel like your two pair is a monster, even if in involves the odd card. There are still lots of hands that beat you.

In a multiway pot, in both situations, you need to tread extra carefully. The more callers who see the flop, the more likely it is that someone has trips or better, even if the paired-flop card is a deuce or a trey. If it is an ace or a face card, forget it. Somebody has it, and possibly more than one of them. Let them fight it out. There's no need to test the waters when you know that they're full of sharks.

When you flop a draw. The last possibility is that you've flopped a flush or straight draw. The good news is that you're likely to see at least the turn card for a low price. The bad news is that you may already be drawing dead.

This is one of those times when you need to allow for the possibility that if you make your hand you can still lose the pot. After all, the board is already paired. If you were playing Omaha, you probably wouldn't even draw at this one. But even in Texas Holdem, you need to be careful. Take the possibility of hitting and losing into consideration when calculating your odds, and do what you can to keep the pot small.

When you flop absolutely nothing. In this situation and the previous one, you do have an opportunity here to take down the pot with a bluff. If nobody shows strength, a bet of half to two-thirds of the pot is usually enough to separate those with no interest in the pot from their cards, without getting too expensive. But don't go to this well too often. It will be obvious when this bluff doesn't work. Someone with a real hand will come over the top, either on this street or the next one, and you will be forced to fold. Save your bluffs for situations where you have the most to gain by the result.

The more you play poker, the more comfortable you will be with paired flop situations. You need to make money in these situations, and not just when you flop the nuts. You need to make money when you only flop two pair, and even less. The secret is the same as it is for Holdem in general: vary your game, know your opponents, and always be wary of someone waiting to strike with a monster hand. If you can stay out of trouble, while taking down pots from players who give up on the hand, you will show a profit in this surprisingly common situation.

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