Four Degrees of Poker Thinking, Part Two

As we discussed last month, poker is a game which requires four degrees of thinking. The first degree is playing your own hand. (What do I have?) The second degree is playing your opponents' hands. (What does he have?) The third degree is playing your opponents' perception of you. (What does he think I have?) And the fourth is playing your opponents' perceptions of themselves. (What does he think I think he has?)

Last month, we discussed first degree poker thinkers, how they see the game, and what not to try with them. This month, we will take the other three.

Second-Degree Thinker. A second-degree thinker is going to be much stronger than a first-degree thinker, but not without weaknesses. He is playing not only his own hands, but those of their opponents. But he doesn't take into consideration how his actions are perceived or how his opponents might be deceiving him. These players tend to play straight-forward poker, and are easily fooled by actions that run counter to ABC strategy. If they are on a draw, they check-call but never bet or raise. If they flop a set, they may check-raise, but only because that's what "the book" says. Similarly, they don't see a check-call as a show of strength, and they don't see an overbet as a potential bluff. They consider themselves to be good, solid players, and they usually are. But they are easy to manipulate, and ultimately will lose to better players.

Second-degree players also tend to jump on shows of weakness, and this is often the best way to beat them. They can be counted on to push their hands against anybody who checks or bets weakly, and therefore are easy to trap. By the same token, they will take shows of strength at face value, and will fold marginal hands to any raise, even a small one.

A great move against second-degree players is the semi-bluff. A semi-bluff is a strong bet (a show of strength) that, if called, still leaves the bluffer with outs to hit his hand. So, against a second-degree thinker, you have a very good chance of taking down the pot with your bluff. If you are called by the second-degree thinker, you know that he has a hand. So when your card comes in, your opponent won't be able to put you on a draw, and with the knowledge that he has something, you can comfortably put in a good-sized value bet that will be called.

Third-Degree Thinker. A third-degree thinker has these skills, but also has the ability to deceive. He is aware that poker is a game where a player is constantly sending messages to his opponent, and he is careful not to send off messages that reveal the strength of his hand. He is watching himself for tells, and will sometimes go overboard in trying to appear weak when he is strong and strong when he appears weak. A perfect example of this is the player that, when you bet into him, shows you expressions of fear, frustration, exasperation, and dread. Then, just as he is about to fold his hand, he raises. He think he's fooling you with his carefully-orchestrated display, but when he does so, it is a sign that he has the goods.

Other players are much more subtle with their expressions, but oblivious to the notion that you could also be deceptive as well. Remember, the third-degree thinker is constantly asking "what does he think I have?" So, in a sense, he is playing his own hand (like a hapless first-degree thinker), he's just playing it through your eyes, instead of his own. His strategy is simple to understand. Either he is trying to make you think his strong hand is weak, or he is trying to make you think his weak hand is strong. Meanwhile, he is interpreting signals from you, but he is less concerned about their authenticity than he should be.

So, as with the second-degree thinker, deception is the key to besting the third-degree thinker. What makes the third-degree thinker tougher is that he is more aware of the signals that he is giving to you, so he is harder to read. And a lot of poker is played this way, especially online. Think about it. When you play online, you are sitting down with a bunch of strangers, 95% of whom you've never played with before. And the only "read" you have on them is your observation of their betting patterns over the few hands that you have seen them play. Yet, you are making an effort to be deceptive in your own presentation, unaware if they are paying attention or not.

Fourth-Degree Thinking. Here is where you find poker players whose minds are working on all levels. Fourth-degree poker players are aware of all of the following:

1. The cards in their hands.
2. The cards in their opponents' hands.
3. Their opponents' perceptions of them.
4. Their opponents' perceptions of themselves.

Confused by that last point? Well, allow me to clarify with an example. You are heads up in a raised pot with a good player. You have position on him, and you are the one who raised. So, when the flop misses you, and he checks, you take a stab at it. He comes over the top with a raise of about four times your bet. Now, as a fourth degree thinker, you have to think not only about his raise, but the message that he is sending with a check raise. He is showing quite a bit of strength, check raising a preflop raiser out of position. He must have a very good hand to be doing so.

Or does he? Is he showing such strength because he is genuinely strong, or is he bluffing, fully aware that you're going to fold all but a very, very good hand. If he truly had a monster, wouldn't he just call, and allow you to continue to throw chips at him? If you don't believe that he has the strong hand that his check-raise represents, then a re-raise is in order. Such a re-raise would certainly put the pressure back on him, and would answer the question of whether he was really as strong as he seems to be.

Now, I'm not telling you what you should do in this situation. The only thing that will tell you what to do is your observation and instincts. But I am telling you that you should be thinking about the messages that your opponents are sending with consider whether those messages are meant to fool you. As a fourth-degree thinker, you see your opponent as someone who is aware of himself, and the signals that he gives off. But just taking note of the signals is not enough. You must investigate why he has provided that particular signal at that particular time, and what message that signal is meant to reveal. This is what good poker is all about, and what the pros mean when they say they have a read on someone. They not only can pick up the signals that their opponents are sending, they can also discern the genuine signals from the deceptive ones. And if you can do that with someone at the poker table, then make room in your stack for their chips. They will be shipping them soon.

Finally, I don't want to misstate my purpose. I don't want you to become a poker player who thinks on a fourth-degree level. I want you to become a poker player who thinks on all four levels. In order to evaluate your position, you need to think about your cards, your opponent's cards, your opponent's perception of you, and your opponent's perception of himself. You need to be deceptive, but also understand that your opponents' are also trying to be deceptive, that they are coming after your chips with as much energy as you are for theirs. Only then can you make effective decisions at the table.

So the next time you are at the table, give some thought to the four levels of poker thought. Figure out which of your opponents think on which levels, and try to incorporate all four into your own thought process. Your bankroll will thank you.

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