It's Only One Pair

I just plugged a leak in my own game, based on something that I saw on television. It could lead me down the road to a column about how watching poker on TV really can help your game, but that one is still baking in the old mental oven, so I think for this month, I'll deal with the leak that I managed to plug.

I made a list of the biggest pots I lost over a period of time, say 100 hours. I took out situations where I had the best hand going in, only to outdrawn by a lesser hand. I also took out those situations where I should not have expected to lose - when I have a boat and my opponent has quads, where I have two pair and my opponent caught trips, where I have a pretty good flush and my opponent showed me a higher one. You get the idea.

What was left was surprising, and a little embarrassing. I discovered that I lost a great deal of money calling large bets, even all-in bets, with a single pair. How do you go broke with just one pair? I'm sorry to say, I've done it, and more than once.

The fact is, we've all done it. We want to play good, solid poker, so we wait around for a premium hand, two big cards to get our money in with. Then, we wait around again for a good flop, one that gives us one of these situations:

1. An overpair

2. Top pair top kicker

3. Top pair second kicker

We feel pretty good, like our patience has paid off. But then somebody raises us, and makes us play for most or all of our chips. Sometimes it works out, when the player is on a bluff or a semibluff, or thinks his top-pair-weak-kicker is good. But often it doesn't, and we lose a bunch of chips to a hand that we had beat pre-flop, but which caught two pair or better on the flop. When we go broke to a vastly inferior (starting) hand, we are infuriated and want to kill somebody. We believe that the person who deserves to be the target of our wrath is sitting at the table across from us, stacking our chips. But in order to meet the real enemy, all we have to do is to look in the mirror.

This is a problem that seems to happen to mostly tight, "solid" players. Because they play so few hands, they find it difficult to give up the hands that they do play, even when it looks as if they are beat. Let's break down an example.

You are in a $2-5 NL cash game, and raise in early position with A-K. You get two callers including the big blind. The flop comes out A-9-4, and the big blind checks. Now, you have top pair and top kicker. It's a good hand, and as a "solid" player with a good hand, you make a good bet for about � of the pot. The big blind calls and the other player folds.

Now, you have top pair top kicker against one opponent, and you are in position. The perfect situation, right? Well, let's see. The turn is a seven, which changes little, although it does put a second heart on the board. The big blind checks. You put your opponent on a weaker ace, maybe A-Q or A-J. He could be drawing at this point, but since he called a decent-sized bet on the flop, you're figuring that he isn't.

So you bet. About � of the pot again, which is double what you bet on the flop. But this time, instead or calling, he comes back with a raise, about triple your bet. Now you have to think.

"Maybe he is making a move on me. After all, I've been doing a lot of folding, and my image has got to be tight."

"Maybe he really likes his A-Q, and thinks I am just pushing him."
"Maybe he is on a draw after all, and wants to disguise it with a semi-bluff."

So you call, and on the river comes a beautiful little offsuit deuce. Except for another ace or king, this is the best possible card for you, since it kills his draws, and isn't likely to pair him up. So you bet again, but now your bet is only half the pot. It is a value bet, and you fully expect to get paid off by a call.

But he doesn't call. Far from it. He takes a glance at you, then pushes all of his chips in the middle. He has you covered, and so he is really putting you all in.

Now, on every street, you have been trying to put him on a hand. On the flop, you put him on a weak ace. When he raised on the turn, you figured he was making a move, or he thought you were doing the same. Now that he has put you all in on the river, things have become even murkier.

They shouldn't. It should be clear to you that you are beat. All that is left is for you to fold and move on to the next hand. Think about it. The only hands he could have that you can beat are A-Q, A-J, A-T. He could have an ace with an 8, 6, 5, 4, or 3, but would he really bet them that way against a tight player?

On the other side of the coin, there are lots of hands that he could have that have you beat: A-A, 9-9, 4-4, 7-7, 4-7, A-9, A-7, A-4, and A-2. Four of these possible hands are the weak aces that you put him on previously.

And yes, he could be bluffing. He could have missed his draw and decided to push you off your hand. But you called his previous raise, and kept betting out. So a bluff for him is risky here.

This is a must fold. But you can't seem to do so. So after a long pause in which you focus on all of the hands that you can beat, you call. He shows you the 4-9 and takes down the pot, leaving you steaming. All you can think about the rest of the night - hell, probably the rest of the week - is how some lucky @#$%&*! called your raise with 4-9 and flopped two pair.

Look, there is nothing wrong with being selective with your starting hands, so long as you can fold when you think you are beat. When you only play top-ten hands, you will be ahead before the flop most of the time. You will feel like you ought to win - hell, you deserve to win - every hand you enter, unless someone happens to look down at a better preflop hand than yours.

But you won't win them all. As sure as there are 52 cards in a deck, you will be beaten, even with the best of preflop hands. When you have kings, you'll see an ace on the flop. When you have aces, you will see two kings, or three hearts, or K-Q-J. Something will happen in the hand that tips you off that you are beat. A little voice will whisper in your ear that somebody got lucky on you. If you can listen to that voice, then you will be able to fold when you are beat. And your game will improve. I guarantee it.

Finally, do an exercise for me. The next time you watch poker on TV, pay attention to the part of the show where they describe the ranking of the hands. All of us so-called sophisticated poker players zone out during this part of the show, or use it as time to grab something from the fridge. The next time you watch some poker on TV, pay attention to this part, and notice where these hands rank.

3 An overpair

4. Top pair top kicker

5. Top pair second kicker

All of them are One Pair, and they rank near the bottom of the list. You're not going to win a huge pot with one pair unless you can get all your chips in preflop. So don't lose all of your chips with one pair either. Know when you are beat, fold, and move on. Your bankroll will thank you.

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