How to REALLY Figure Implied Odds

How many times have you heard this, either at a live game or via that little chat box at the virtual tables of the online poker rooms? Somebody calls a pot-sized bet with a draw, then makes his draw and wins the pot.

The loser of the hand sneers, "Good call. You were a five-to-one dog, and you call a pot-sized bet."

The reply is as predictable as the seasons. "Implied Odds, Dude," he says, trying to wipe the smile off his face as he stacks his newfound chips.

Most players don't have the first clue about implied odds, and use the excuse to justify calling nearly anything. But those that do understand this concept and the factors that can enhance or limit your implied odds will help you considerably, both in cash games and in tournaments, since it will allow you to call more bets and take down big pots when you do.

As far is the calculation is concerns, the math is simple. If you are contemplating a call, figure the odds of making your hand. Then, multiply this number by the size of the bet. The result is the amount that you will need to win in order to justify that call. Let's start with an example.

Let's say that you have pocket eight's in late position. There is a raise in front of you, and two others have called. You will need to call a $20 bet in order to see the flop. You know that the chances of your pair of fours turning into a set on the flop are right at eight to one, and that if you do hit your set, you will probably win the pot. So, the question that you need to ask yourself is this: "Will I win at least $160 if I hit my set on the flop?" If you believe that it will, then your call is a good one. If not, then you should look for another spot.

Of course, there is a slight chance that the flop will leave you with an overpair to the board, which will allow you to either take down the pot, or at the very least stay for the turn. There is also a slight chance that you will hit your set and still lose. We've all been there, too. These might have a small effect on what you do, but they don't weigh heavily on your decision. Here are a couple of factors that are important:

1. Make sure you're going to win the pot. If you have a spade draw, and another player is betting out, then you can assume that you will wind the hand if your flush comes in - that is, unless he is running a semi-bluff with a flush draw of his own. But what if you only have the 7-8 of spades, and there is another player check-calling just like you? Odds are that he is also on a flush draw, and if your spade comes in, so does his. If you're walking in with an 8, you can probably assume that you are beaten. So this is a bad draw.

This concept is true in Texas Holdem, but it is doubly true in Omaha. I frankly don't know all that much about Omaha, but I do know this: If you're not drawing to the nuts, don't bother drawing. Nothing is worse than hitting your hand, pushing in a big bet, and then showing down second best.

2. Make sure that you will be paid off. Assuming that you have enough chips in your own stack to generate the implied odds that you need, the best way to look at this is to understand your opponents. Take a look at the player that you're in the hand with, and ask yourself three things about him.

a. Does he have enough chips in front of him to pay me off if I hit my hand?
b. Does he like his hand enough to continue betting or calling with it?
c. Is he willing to call big bets to showdown a hand, or does he run and hide at the first sniff of a raise?

Note that it really doesn't matter whether he is bluffing. If he is on a bluff, and you call him on it, he will either stop pushing on the next street, or will continue making large bets that will add to the pot. So you will either win a small pot by catching a bluffer in the act, or win a big pot if you make your hand. Note also that the better the player, the worse your chances are of winning the size of the pot that you need to justify the call. Good players know when they are beaten, and won't pay you off with the second best hand. Bad players will call nearly anything with their two pair or top pair-top kicker, so you can afford to put in a bigger bet on the river and still have it called.

3. Have a hand that is well-concealed, if possible. If have two diamonds in your hand, and there are two diamonds on the board, then you have flopped a flush draw. You call a bet on the flop, you call a bet on the turn, and then come out betting when the third diamond hits on the river, what is your opponent to think? You are making it quite obvious that you have a flush. A decent opponent will think twice about calling you. But what if there is only one diamond on the flop, and you called because you had top pair? The second diamond comes on the turn, giving you a flush draw. Will you get paid off if your diamond comes in on the river? Well, let's just say that your chances are better than in the first scenario.

The other way that this concept works is with straights where both of your hole cards make the hand. Most players have a harder time seeing -- or believing -- straights than flushes, especially if your two cards are not connected. If you are playing Q-10, and the flop comes out 9-J-x, then you have an open ended straight draw. If a King or an eight come on the turn, will your opponent credit you with a straight? Again, they might, but your chances of getting paid off are pretty good.

4. Circumstances change on every street. Once you make the decision that you are getting the proper implied odds to call a bet, don't feel locked into your decision for the rest of the hand. You have made a decision on that particular bet. It has no bearing on the next hand, or even the next street of the same hand.

I'll give you yet another example. (Last one, I promise.) Suppose you're holding 10-9 and the flop comes out A-8-J. You have a open-ended straight draw, and your opponent bets $20 into a $30 pot. He is a decent but hardly fearsome player who likes to splash around, and both of you have plenty of chips in front of you. The pot is only giving you 2.5/1 odds on the bet, but with eight outs, you are just under 6/1 to take the lead in the hand. So you will need to win $120 in order to justify calling here, and your call will bring it to $70, more than halfway there. It is reasonable to assume that your opponent will call $50 more in bets on the next two streets if you hit your hand. So while the pot odds are not in your favor, the implied odds certainly are, so you make the correct call.

Then, lo and behold, another Ace comes down, and your opponent tosses in $75. Now, you still have the same draw, but you need to win $450 in order for you to call, and there's only one more betting round remaining. If you call the $75, it will bring the pot to $220, which means that you will need your opponent to call a bet of $230 in order to pay you off adequately. Besides, your opponent could already be sitting on a boat with A-J, A-8, J-J, or 8-8, in which case you're drawing dead. So suddenly, you no longer have the pot odds nor the implied odds to call. The correct move is to fold.

Did you waste that first bet? Well, it bought you a look at the next card. But since the card nor the bet following it were not helpful, your fold on the turn is the right one. The point is that just because you were smart to call on the flop that you have to keep going to the river. Each bet is an individual one, and as circumstances change, so do your decisions.

So, implied odds will allow you to justify calls that you wouldn't be able to make by just evaluating pot odds, but only under the right circumstances. It does not give you carte blanche to call any draw you want to. You need to determine how big of a pot you need to win, identify the circumstances that are true for your own hand, and make an intelligent decision based on those circumstances. Then, when you take down a big pot, and your opponent tells you how big of an underdog you were, you can carefully explain your thought process. Or, better yet, just say, "Implied odds, dude."

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