Here is the game: You
are playing Texas Holdem and in each of
the various situations you get to choose
which hand you would rather have 78 suited
or AJ offsuit.
1. Everybody folds and
you are first in on the button.
2. There are five limpers
and you are on the button.
3. There are two callers
and you are in middle position.
4. You are in the big
blind against an early position raiser.
5. Everybody folds and
the button raises and you are in the big
blind.
Think it over before
reading any further.
1. This one is pretty
clear cut. AJ figures to be the best hand
and plays well in a short handed pot.
2. This is the one that
the Internet people shocked me on. They
all liked the AJ in this situation. This
is the result of computer analyses, AJ
won a significantly higher percentage
of pots than the 78 suited.
In poker the winning
players are not the ones that win the
most pots. Obviously if you played every
hand you would win many more pots than
a conservative opponent, if you plan on
playing every hand, make sure that you
bring plenty of money, you'll need it.
When you have one opponent that is virtually
playing every hand, try to sit on his
left. You want to isolate this person
as much as possible. Also, you should
make a deal with him, "every time I win
a pot I will give you $5, every time you
win a pot you give me $5" this will be
quite profitable.
Now back to the analyses:
78 suited plays well with many people
( in this case 6 or 7 depending on whether
the little blind calls), this is a drawish
type hand and you will always be getting
great odds to draw. Say for example, that
you flop as little as an inside straight
draw, you will be getting the right price
to take a card off, especially if you
have a back door flush draw. You are in
late position, if you should flop a flush
draw or an open end straight draw, you
can raise on the flop if the bet comes
from early position. One of two things
will happen. You miss your draw on the
turn, when it is checked to you, you can
check and take your free card. You hit
your draw on the turn, now your raise
on the flop built you a bigger pot.
AJ does not play well
against a large field of players. With
AJ you will flop two pair, trips, a straight,
or a full house 3% of the time. By the
way, we are not considering flops of A77
as flopping two pair. When you flop exactly
one pair, half of the time it will be
a jack which does not have to be top pair.
The flop could be KJ or QJ. You have 7
opponents so it is difficult to get the
pot thinned out, when you do flop top
pair.
This is where computer
analyses lets us down. It assumes that
all opponents go to the river on every
hand. In other words, the opponent that
had 56 of diamonds will continue to play
even when the flop is AKQ of clubs. This
is why the win percentage of AJ is skewed.
Also consider when the flop comes QsJs
9d and the five opponents check and the
player in front of you bets, you have
to fold. Now the next two cards are 2c
4c and the winner of the pot has something
like the J10. You folded the best hand.
Another example is when the flop come
567 and you fold and the Ace or the Jack
comes on the turn, which would have ended
up being the best hand. The bottom line
is that this hand is hard to play and
you will not end up winning all the pots
that the computer analyses shows you will.
3. AJ is best here.
This is not a multi-way pot, you should
raise and try to eliminate the rest of
the players. If you are in a game where
the opponents on your left are routinely
calling raises, the 78 suited is getting
closer. But I would still rather have
the AJ.
4. Most early position
raisers have decent raising standards.
AJ is a big trouble hand in this situation.
When the flop comes Ace high you are afraid
that you could be in kicker trouble. When
the flop comes Jack high you are afraid
that you are against an over pair. When
the flop comes AJ you could still have
the worst hand. Even if you have the best
hand you will usually end up missing bets
and giving free cards. The 78 suited on
the other hand doesn't have all of the
above mentioned problems. When you flop
a pair with all small cards on the flop,
there is a decent chance that the raiser
has a holding like AK and you have the
best hand. When you flop two pair or trips,
you are much happier with your hand. And
these are the types of hands that will
flop draws, which are much better hands
to have against a possible big pair. Consider
the situation where you flop a draw and
are up against AK no pair. If that player
checks on the turn behind you, you get
to draw for free. It is up to you to decide
if you think that a bluff will be profitable
on the river if you end up with 8 high.
That is where knowing your opponent comes
into play.
5. This does not have
to be a legitimate raise like the example
above. When everybody folds and the button
raises, there is a wide variety of hands
that the raiser can have where AJ is the
best hand or is in OK shape. For example,
the raiser has any ace. An example of
being in OK shape would be when the raiser
has a smaller pocket pair than Jacks,
where you have two over-cards.