Reading Hands in 7-Stud: Part Three

BY: Ashley Adams
Contact at: (Asha34@aol.com)
Author of Winning 7-Card Stud

In the first two parts of this series I explained the rudiments of figuring out what your opponent has. You first need to characterize your opponent into a general category: loose-passive, tight-aggressive, loose-aggressive (maniac) and tight-passive (weak-tight). You then use the cards you see and have seen during the play of the hand to figure out what your opponent is likely to have. You use his betting action to help you with that as well. But there are more clues that can aid your process of deduction.

Here's a hand to consider. Remember, it is impossible to know with certainty what your opponent holds. Your purpose should be to estimate, as best you can, what he is LIKELY to hold based on the clues you have.

Your opponent shows: (x-x) Kc - 3c - 7c. He is high on board and bets.

You have: (Qd - 8h) Qs - 6d - 8c. You think about what you should do. And that, of course, depends on what you think he has. We'll address what your action should be at the end. But let's start with carefully considering what he is likely to have.

How do you figure out whether he is likely to have the Flush?

Review the basics first. He is a straightforward, relatively tight-aggressive player. He's not very tricky. There were a couple of clubs folded -- but no more than that. Kings are completely live.

Next, you must return to the betting of the hand up until this point. That will reveal a lot.

As it turns out, you raised the bring in with your pair of Queens on Third Street. He was next to act, called your raise, and everyone else folded. On Fourth Street he checked and you bet. He called your Fourth Street bet.

So what do you think he has on Fifth Street? Try to rule out other likely hands.

Might he have Kings up?

Unlikely, no? If he started with a pair of Kings this tight-aggressive player would be likely to reraise your raise. At the very least he would have bet them on Fourth Street unless he was very tricky -- and we've already decided that he isn't tricky. So we can probably (and nothing is certain in this game) rule him off a pair of Kings or Kings up.

Trip Kings? Highly unlike for two reasons. First of all, it's a very, very long shot for anyone to be rolled up on the deal. Sure, it could happen, but we've got to figure that it's not likely to be his starting hand. And then, on Fourth Street, he probably would have bet it out or check raised you -- being the straightforward, tight-aggressive player that he is.

What about a wired pair of 7s with a King kicker on the deal making Trip 7s on Fifth Street? Also unlikely. With a heads up pot on Fourth Street, making the pot size relatively small, it's unlikely that he would have continued to play this hand with your bet on Fourth Street -- even if he weakly called your bet on Third. Remember, we said he was a tight-aggressive player. If he DID play this hand on Third Street he probably would have raise with it to insure himself that he'd be playing heads up with you. He didn't do that; he just called. With little dead money in the pot on Fourth he probably would have folded to your bet when he didn't catch good.

So what does that leave? A Straight is impossible. This leaves the Flush. A straightforward player might have played his 3-Flush by calling -- expecting others to call and being disappointed to find the pot heads up. On Fourth Street, getting his Fourth suited card he checked and called your bet with close to a 50% chance of making his Flush. And, luckily for him, on Fifth Street he caught the Flush and bets it. He's not tricky. So he He just value bets, hoping you'll call -- maybe hoping that you'll put him on some lessor hand.

One last factor, though, before concluding this read. What is MY image at the table? If I am known to be very weak-tight -- meaning I can be blown off hands relatively easily with strong betting -- then I might be tempted NOT to give him credit for the Flush. If my opponent thinks they can bully me then it's much more likely that they would call my early raise even if they only held a low pair -- hoping to have an opportunity to knock me out of the pot later on with strong betting. Hence, a call with a wired pair and a two Flush would have made sense -- as would calling my bet on Fourth Street even if my opponent hadn't improved. If he caught a 4-Straight on Fifth Street then he surely would have bet it strongly hoping to convince timid me that he had the Flush and that my obvious pair of Queens or even Two Pair was beaten.

But if my image was one of being tight and aggressive -- and not callow or retreating under pressure, then I'd probably give him credit for the Flush and fold.

Sure, there are other possibilities. But we're not talking about certainty -- only probability. I'd fold with my pair of Queens in this spot. True, he might have had a wired pair and a 4-Flush, playing more loosely early on than I gave him credit for. So I might have folded the best hand. But I would have been only a relatively small favorite over his pair with a King overcard and 4-Flush (you number gurus can run the stats and let me know exactly how close we were -- I'd say about 52% favorite to 48% dog assuming two of his suit were out). And if my read were correct I'd be a HUGE underdog.

But I choose this example not so much to explain my conclusion but to give you an understanding of how to apply the many clues you're given in 7-Stud to make your own decisions on what to do. Remember to use the clues to reach certainty but to narrow down the possible hands your opponent has. Continue to reevaluate what he has based on all the new information that you get as the hand progresses. And then use the deductions you make to determine the best betting action.

© The Poker Forum.com, all rights reserved